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We are just days away from the opener of one of the most anticipated Pro Motocross seasons in recent memory. Haiden Deegan is set to make his 450 US debut this Saturday. Two-time defending champion Jett Lawrence is back in action after missing all of Monster Energy Supercross. Hunter Lawrence is hoping to rebound after a heart-breaking end to his Supercross season. Jorge Prado is back with KTM. Eli Tomac debuts with KTM in Pro Motocross and so much more to look forward to this summer.
Here are 10 things I think I think heading into the season.
I think… we will have five different winners in the 450 Class
Overall winners, that is. I realize this might be a stretch, but this is one of the deepest fields we’ve had in years.
Here is my list of overall winners. It is the only list that matters. All other lists are irrelevant.
Jett Lawrence
Hunter Lawrence
Haiden Deegan
Jorge Prado
Eli Tomac
I think… Jett Lawrence wins the title
A year ago, Jett was coming off injury. A year ago, we all had the same questions. A year ago, Jett went out and won a second straight 450 title.
This year, we have many of those same questions. And while everything says this injury was worst than last years, I still think Jett finds a way to win this championship.
Do I think he comes out and wins Pala like last year? I’m not as confident in that. Do I think he is a bit rusty the first few rounds? Probably. As he should be. Do I think he finds momentum mid-way through the season and holds off his brother for the title? I do, which is why I’m predicting such things.
I think… Hunter Lawrence finishes second
Man, you have to feel for Hunter right now. He was THIS CLOSE to capturing the SuperMotocross Playoffs last year before losing out to his brother. He was THIS CLOSE to capturing the Supercross title before losing out to Ken Roczen in an instant classic SLC Showdown. And now, no one is talking about him for this title.
I get it. Jett and Haiden will dominate the headlines, but Hunter should be right there on anyones list. Did we already forget his incredible rides the last few years in this championship? Or his 1-1 performance at last years Motocross of Nations? I know we all have ADD brain half the time, but we need to put some respect on Hunter’s chance this summer. He is my pick to win it all if Jett stumbles.
I think… Eli Tomac will be in contention
Shocker, I know. This isn’t a screaming headline or a bold proclamation, more stating the obvious. I think Eli will have a very similar year to his 2025 season. Podiums, rides that remind you of the Beast Mode years, and some off-weekends when he isn’t comfortable.
I think… Haiden Deegan shacks up the class, but falls short of the title
Winning a Pro Motocross title as a rookie is not unprecedented. It is much easier to do than win a title as a rookie in Supercross. But, that doesn’t make it easy.
Sure, Deegan is saying all the right things (or wrong, depending how you want to look at it) ahead of his debut. Deegan is confident heading into his rookie season, as he should be. He’s won—a lot—at every stage of his career and to me, if you don’t believe you can do it, then why even line up?
But, winning in the 250 Class is much different than winning in the 450 Class. Sure, Jett has made it look easy at times, but it’s not. And Haiden has to race that Jett guy who’s made it look easy.
Will Haiden win races, dominate the headlines and drive some riders crazy with his antics? He will. And while I think he will win plenty of titles in the 450 Class, 2026 won’t be his first. If you are making me predict his finish at the end of the season, I’ll say third or fourth overall.
I think… Justin Cooper will win motos, but no overalls
Justin Cooper is really, really good. Maybe the most underrated rider on the gate and the poster child for a deeper issue in this sport: if you don’t win, you suck. Justin’s last few seasons should be a badge of honor. He stays healthy, gets plenty of podiums and is near the front of EVERY race. Yet, he doesn’t get the respect he should. And while I think he will have a very similar season to last year—fourth overall in the championship—I think he falls short of an overall. As I’ve mentioned, this field is DEEP and Cooper might be on the outside looking in for overall wins.
I think… Chase Sexton will struggle
Will the ship get turned around outdoors? I don’t think so. While Sexton did get two wins in Supercross, sixth in points wasn’t what anyone imagined after this deal was announced last off-season and I haven’t seen or heard anything that makes me think Pro Motocross will change anything.
While I don’t think this summer will be a complete failure, I also don’t foresee any way Chase challenges for the title, which is his ultimate goal.
To me, the bigger question heading into the summer is: will Sexton remain at Kawasaki if things continue to go sideways?
I think… we see a very different Jorge Prado
Speaking of… Things could not have gone worse for Jorge Prado in his debut season in the US last year with Kawasaki. We don’t need to rehash it all here, that would take weeks, months or even years. Just know, this year will be different.
I’m here to stake a claim: Prado will challenge for—and maybe even win—the title this summer. If you don’t follow MXGP, then you might think I’m crazy. If you do, you know I’m speaking truth here.
Prado is a beast outdoors. And being back with KTM, the brand he won multiple titles with in Europe, will be the thing he needs to repair the damage last year did.
I think… RJ Hampshire secures a better deal with his summer
With Husqvarna shutting down its factory efforts after the 2026 SMX Playoffs, RJ Hampshire will be seeking a new deal for 2027 and beyond. In a very much what have you done lately sport, Hampshire can remind everyone this summer why he is still very much deserving of a factory ride. All signs point to RJ already having multiple suitors, but I think he further solidifies his value with another solid Pro Motocross season in 2026.
I think… this will be the most-watched Pro Motocross season in history
If everyone stays relatively healthy. Monster Energy AMA Supercross just produced record viewership numbers, and I don’t see how Pro Motocross doesn’t achieve the same level of viewership increase. I don’t remember a more anticipated Pro Motocross season in the last decade. This summer could be all-time.
Photos: octopi.media
