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We have reached the end of a very long 2026 SMX season. Thirty rounds down, one to go. The SMX World Championship Final takes place this Saturday at Thunder Ridge Nature Arena in Ridgedale, Missouri, and points-wise, things are shaping up for one hell of a conclusion.

And if you forgot how this whole thing works, the finale pays triple championship points. A win is worth 75 points, second pays 66, third pays 60, and so on. So, yeah, things could get weird in a hurry.

Being a 144-time AMA Media Member of the Year Nominee, I have taken it upon myself to walk you through the Most Likely Championship Scenarios for both classes. Is this every mathematically possible scenario? Absolutely not. I ain’t doing that much math. But… it is a lot.

If I messed up any math, please email [email protected].

450 Class

Jorge Prado – 1st | 92pts

His win last weekend in LA was massive, as it was double points and puts him in a great position entering the finale. The math is quite simple for Jorge: finish third or better and he will clinch the title. If Jorge finishes fourth or worse, well, it gets interesting. 

Haiden Deegan – 2nd | 76pts

Hunter Lawrence – 3rd | 76pts

Ken Roczen – 4th | 74pts

Cooper Webb – 5th | 72pts

If Prado finishes fourth or worse then get your popcorn, because it will be a winner-take-all showdown between Deegan, Lawrence, Roczen and Webb!!!!

Lawrence and Roczen are coming off moto wins last weekend, Deegan went 1-1 at the opener and Webb might be more motivated than ever heading into the weekend. 

250 Class

Levi Kitchen — 1st | 87 pts

As with Prado, the math is pretty simple for Kitchen: win and he’s the champion. In fact, Kitchen has a little more breathing room than you might think.

If Kitchen finishes second, only a Ryder DiFrancesco win can take the title away from him. If Kitchen finishes third, he wins the championship unless Ryder finishes second.

Fourth is where things start to get more complicated. If Kitchen finishes fourth or worse, he needs Ryder to finish behind him and Beaumer to finish second or worse.

Kitchen Scenarios

Kitchen win
Champion regardless

Kitchen P2: 153
– Ryder D P3: 144
– Beaumer win: 146

Kitchen P3: 147
– Ryder D P3: 138
– Beaumer win: 146

Kitchen P4: 141
– Ryder D P5: 135
– Beaumer P2: 137

Kitchen P5: 138
– Ryder P4: 138 (tie); Kitchen owns tiebreaker
– Beaumer P2: 137

Kitchen P6: 135
– Ryder D P5 = 135 (tie); Kitchen owns tiebreaker
– Beaumer P3 = 131

Ryder DiFrancesco – 2nd | 84pts

With just three points separating Ryder D and Kitchen, his path is straightforward at the front: win and he’s the champion, regardless of what anyone else does.

If DiFrancesco finishes second, he needs Kitchen to finish third or worse. If DiFrancesco finishes third, Kitchen must finish fourth or worse, while Beaumer must finish second or worse.

Fourth is where the tiebreaker becomes important. A fourth for DiFrancesco and fifth for Kitchen would leave both tied at 138 points, but Kitchen would win the tiebreaker thanks to his overall victory in Columbus. So if DiFrancesco finishes fourth, he actually needs Kitchen to finish sixth or worse, while Beaumer must finish second or worse.

Ryder D Scenarios

DiFrancesco wins: 159
Champion regardless.

DiFrancesco P2: 150
– Kitchen P3 = 147
– Beaumer win = 146

DiFrancesco P3: 144
– Kitchen P4 = 141
– Beaumer P2 = 137

Ryder P4: 138
– Kitchen P6 = 135
– Beaumer P2: 137

Julien Beaumer – 3rd | 71pts

At 16 points back, Beaumer needs some help, but his path to the championship is still very realistic, especially if he wins.

If Beaumer wins, Kitchen must finish fourth or worse and DiFrancesco third or worse. If Beaumer finishes second, he needs Kitchen to finish sixth or worse and DiFrancesco fifth or worse. If he finishes third, Kitchen needs to finish eighth or worse and DiFrancesco seventh or worse.

Beaumer Scenarios

Beaumer wins: 146
– Kitchen P4 = 141
– Ryder D P3 = 144

Beaumer P2 → 137
– Kitchen P6 = 135
– Ryder D P5 = 135

Beaumer P3: 131
– Kitchen P8 = 129
– Ryder D P7 = 129

Kayden Minear – 4th | 57pts

Minear is still mathematically alive, but unlike the three riders ahead of him, he needs a win and plenty of help. A victory would move Minear to 132 points. He needs Beaumer to finish third or worse, but the tiebreak rules make the Kitchen and Ryder scenarios a little more interesting.

If Kitchen finishes seventh, he would also have 132 points. Minear’s finale victory would give both riders one SMX Playoff overall win. The tiebreak would then move to second-place finishes, then thirds and Kitchen’s third overall in Los Angeles would ultimately put him ahead. So Kitchen still needs to finish eighth or worse.

Ryder is different. Ryder can finish sixth, which would also put him at 132 points. Minear’s finale victory would give him one SMX Playoff overall win to Ryder’s zero, meaning Minear would win that tiebreaker.

Minear Scenarios

Minear wins: 132
– Kitchen P8: 129
– Ryder P6 = 132 (tie); Minear owns tiebreaker
– Ryder P7 = 129
– Beaumer P3 = 131