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After 16 grueling rounds, the 2025 Monster Energy AMA Supercross Championship will wrap up this Saturday in Salt Lake City, Utah. In this edition of “Most Likely” we take a look at where Monster Energy/Yamaha Star Racing’s Cooper Webb must finish in order to clinch a third 450SX championship.
First, a few notes:
Season Points
Cooper Webb: 347
Chase Sexton: 338
Webb will enter the finale with a 9 point lead over Sexton in the championship.
Season Wins
Sexton: 6
Webb: 5
Sexton’s win in Denver was big for a few reasons. 1) He picked up a valuable three points on Webb and 2) he now holds the tie-breaker in the championship should they tie in points at seasons end.
Tie-Breaker Rules
- In the case where two or more Riders have the same number of points, the Riders will be ranked according to the greatest number of Main Event and Triple Crown Overall wins.
- If a tie still exists after that, the greatest number of second place finishes, third place finishes etc. will be used in the same manner, until the tie is broken.
- If a tie still exists after that, the Rider having the best finish in the last race will prevail.
- In all cases, a race finish will not count in any of these determinations where a Rider was Disqualified
If Sexton wins…
Webb would need to finish 5th or better. If Webb were to finish 6th, they would tie in points with Sexton holding the tie-breaker.
If Sexton finishes 2nd…
Webb would need to finish 8th or better to clinch a third title.
If Sexton finishes 3rd…
If Sexton were to finish 3rd, Webb needs to finish 10th or better to clinch.
If Sexton finishes 4th…
Webb would need to take home a 12th or better to take home the title.
If Sexton finishes 5th…
Webb needs to finish 13th or better in order to clinch.
If Sexton finishes 6th…
Webb would need to finish 14th or better in order to clinch.
There you have it. There are more scenarios the further down we go, but seeing as Sexton has only finished outside the top 5 twice this season, and Webb has finished outside the top 4 only once, this feels like a good place to stop.
While Webb is certainly the favorite to clinch going into the weekend, he doesn’t have a ton of room for error.
