Slaw
One point. Two motos. One champion. Let us all take a moment to appreciate the year we’ve had in professional racing, because I can tell you this: they are not all like this.
After an incredible Supercross championship fight that came down to the final round, we somehow get to do it all over again this weekend. Hunter Lawrence heads into the Pro Motocross finale at Ironman with a one-point lead over his brother Jett Lawrence. One. Freaking. Point.
It’s not technically winner-take-all, but for all intents and purposes, it sure feels like it.
If Jett goes 1-1, he’s the champion. If Hunter goes 1-1, he’s the champion. With only two motos remaining, the simplest way to look at it is this: beat your brother and take care of business. Hunter enters with the advantage and owns the championship tiebreaker thanks to his 12 moto wins compared to Jett’s eight.
And, that’s where we’re starting this week’s NXTbets conversation. Because there isn’t just one way to play the Lawrence vs. Lawrence showdown. You can look at the championship futures, bet who wins Moto 1, the overall winner, or dig into some of the other odds surrounding the biggest race of the summer.
So, let’s break down the odds, what they actually mean, and where things get interesting heading into Ironman.
The first thing you want to do is go to NXTBETS.COM/PLAYVURB. Yes, we have our own landing page… for a reason. Then, you want to Choose a Platform, Create an Account and Make Your Picks. Unlike when this launched a few years ago and you could only pick overall winners, NOW you can pick holeshots, podiums, top 5s and so much more.
We are going to elaborate on our picks below, but if you are new to NXTbets here is the TL;DR of how it all works:
- Online Betting:
- Place bets on SuperMotocross events through online platforms.
- Access odds, place bets, and track outcomes in real-time.
- Sportsbooks:
- Sign up with reputable sportsbooks that offer SuperMotocross betting.
- Take advantage of bonuses, promotions, and competitive odds.
- Types of Bets:
- Futures Bets: Wager on the outcome of an entire season or championship.
- Head-to-Head Bets: Bet on which of two riders will finish higher in a race.
- State Availability:
- Check the legality of online sports betting in your state.
- Some states have legalized it, while others have restrictions.
- Strategies:
- Research riders’ performance and track conditions.
- Manage your bankroll wisely and bet responsibly.
NXTbets is more than just moto, so check out their site and see get in on some great signup offers. Odds Subject to Change. 21+ Please refer to Affiliated Operators’s T&C. Void where prohibited. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
2026 Ironman Odds
Availability Map
Slaw’s Sleepers
As I have stated MANY times, as an award winning, 20-time AMA Media Member of the Year Nominee, I CAN NOT AND DO NOT PLACE THESE WAGERS.
But, I can give YOU advice and if you decided to place said wagers, well, you would be 10000x richer. Last week, I would have doubled your money. Check out my fancy chart showing you how:
| Bet | Odds | Result | $20 Bet | Profit | Total Returned |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Tomac Top 5 | +160 | ❌ Lost | $20 | -$20 | $0 |
| Hunter Lawrence Moto 1 Winner | +200 | ✅ Won | $20 | +$40 | $60 |
| Haiden Deegan Moto 1 Holeshot | +350 | ✅ Won | $20 | +$70 | $90 |
| Jorge Prado Podium | +150 | ✅ Won | $20 | +$30 | $50 |
| RJ Hampshire Top 5 | +125 | ❌ Lost | $20 | -$20 | $0 |
If you are unfamiliar with betting, here is a better way to explain it:
+100 → $20 bet wins $20 profit → $40 back
+150 → $20 bet wins $30 profit → $50 back
+200 → $20 bet wins $40 profit → $60 back
+350 → $20 bet wins $70 profit → $90 back
Now, let me win you even MORE this weekend.
In his 450 career, Jett Lawrence has only finished off the overall podium THREE times in his career. Yes, since 2024, he has three finishes outside the top 3 overall: Hangtown 2024, Ironman 2025, and Budds Creek 2026. Don’t expect that again. Since it is not a true winner take all this weekend, Jett MUST set the tone early with a moto 1 win and that’s what he will do.
Can Haiden Deegan do it again? Look, he wants to throw any wrench he can in this title fight and I believe he will once again grab the moto 1 holeshot. The odds are in his favor as well, which doesn’t hurt.
While Jorge Prado’s podium rate isn’t amazing (15%) a lot of that is based on his disastrous year at Kawasaki in 2025. He’s coming off back-to-back runner up finishes and has three overall podiums in the last six rounds. I don’t feel 10000% on this but I do feel 99999%.
RJ Hampshire has three top five finishes in the last six rounds. He scores another one this weekend at Ironman. Remember, he was pretty solid at this track a year ago at the Motocross of Nations.
Jett may win the moto, but it will be Hunter’s day. It’s his time. My Lead Pipe Lock of the Week.
Get the Edge with NXTbets Player Profiles
Not everyone is as good as me at this, so NXTbets is here to help with their NXTbets player profiles, which has all kind of stats and statistics that will make you much smarter than Bird Dog.
