Slaw
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Following the only weekend off in the 17-round schedule, Monster Energy AMA Supercross returns this Saturday in Birmingham, AL.
And, for the first time in 2026, we get to see who is best in the 250SX divisions, as Birmingham will serve as the first East/West Showdown of the year.
While Monster Energy/Yamaha Star Racing’s Haiden Deegan is running away with the 250SX West Division, this race will have major title implications in the 250SX East Division, as the top four in points are separated by just two points through four rounds.
In this edition of Michelin Most Likely, I will answer the most pressing questions I have thought of for the Showdown.
Is Star Racing most likely to sweep the podium?
Likely? No. Possible? Very much so.
Lets think through the scenarios here. Haiden Deegan is almost guaranteed a podium spot. We can all agree on that. Even though Michael Mosiman is out for the remainder of Supercross, the team will still have 250SX East Division points leader Cole Davies, East Division opener winner Pierce Brown, Anaheim 1 winner Max Anstie, the always dangerous Nate Thrasher and rookie Caden Dudney. Did I miss one of the 40 riders on the team?
Now that I think about it more and more, maybe it is likely….
Here is how I see it playing out: Deegan and Davies are podium locks. Anstie and Brown are podium contenders and Thrasher and Dudney are wildcards. I’ll put the odds at 80% as of now, but I reserve the right to change my prediction after qualifying.
Who is most likely to win?
Deegan. Or Davies. Or Hammaker. Or Anstie. Or Shimoda. Or… you get the point. A lot of riders enter the weekend thinking they should or could win the main event. Did the layoff hurt Deegan’s momentum? Is his big lead going to have him playing it safe?
No and no. Deegan is a ultra competitor. He wants to win anytime he’s on the track. Never one to allow his competition any momentum, Deegan wants to prove a point this weekend and he will. He claims the win this Saturday.
Who is most likely to hurt their title chances?
One of the non-Star Racing riders. They have 75 guys that could get up there and help get between their title contenders. Do I think Anstie is keen to help Deegan? No, no I do not. But, lets us this example. Deegan, Thrasher and Dudney are running up front early. Do Thrasher and Dudney allow a Davies and Brown to get pass them easier? They sure do. Do they make it harder for a Hammaker or Shimoda? They sure do. Force in numbers and Star has the numbers.
Who is most likely to surprise?
Devin Simonson. I have been high on him for the last week (not going to say all season, because that would be a lie and Slaw is no liar). Look, he is putting in quality results with a full field of healthy contenders. Will he top-5? No, no he will not. But a top-10 in this field would be a fantastic result and one he will achieve. You heard it here first.
Photos: octopi.media
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